Tax season for 2026 kicked off strong with the IRS accepting returns starting January 26. Early filers are already seeing bigger refunds, fueled by adjustments in tax brackets and credits. While official averages hover around $2,500 so far, projections point to $3,200 as more Earned Income Tax Credit claims roll in.
Early Season Surge
Refunds climbed 14.2% compared to last year by mid-February. The IRS processed billions in direct deposits, with individual filers averaging over $2,400. This uptick reflects stronger wage growth and inflation tweaks in deductions.​
Key Processing Timeline
E-filed returns accepted by late January often hit accounts within 10-21 days. Paper filers wait longer, up to six weeks. The PATH Act holds certain credits until mid-February, delaying some payouts.​
Projected Refund Averages
| Week Ending | Avg Refund 2025 | Avg Refund 2026 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6 | $2,169 | $2,290 | 10.9% |
| Feb 13 | $2,252 | $2,476 | 14.2% |
| Projected End-April | $2,800 | $3,200 | 14%+ |
Direct Deposit Expectations
Most refunds arrive via direct deposit three weeks after acceptance. Filers using free file tools or big software like TurboTax see faster turnaround. Check “Where’s My Refund?” daily for updates.​
Factors Boosting Refunds
Higher standard deductions and child tax credits drive the $3,200 average forecast. Self-employed folks benefit from elevated expense write-offs. Gig workers report even larger gains from home office expansions.​
Peak Refund Window
Mid-March through early April marks the rush, as EITC and ACTC refunds release post-PATH hold. Over 80% of filers get money by May 1 if filed by April 15. Late filers stretch into summer.​
Tips for Quick Payouts
File early, choose direct deposit, and double-check forms. Avoid errors like mismatched bank info, which snag 10% of claims. Use IRS Free File if under $79,000 income for zero-cost e-filing.​
Potential Delays Ahead
Backlogs from 2025 extensions could slow April processing. Audit risks rise for large refunds over $5,000. States sync federally but add 1-2 weeks.​
Year-End Outlook
By summer, total refunds may top $400 billion, up 10% from 2025. The $3,200 average holds if trends continue, rewarding prudent savers and families most.
FAQs
When do 2026 refunds start?
As early as February for January filers via direct deposit.
What’s the average 2026 refund?
Trending $3,200, up from early $2,476 averages.​
How to track my refund?
IRS “Where’s My Refund” tool, available 24 hours post-filing.